Saturday, September 29, 2012

Goodbye ice caps, hello neighbors

Al Gore, former Vice-President and noted environmental and internet democratization advocate, joined climatologists this week in declaring a planetary emergency after new observations revealed that in the last twelve months, the north polar ice cap has melted significantly, losing an area of roughly 300,000 square miles. As with all claims in the media, I think it is important to independently verify those claims. I have, and it's true, and furthermore it may be necessary to consider the possibility that these statements may have been delivered too conservatively so as not to detract from the overall message that climate change is real.



That's right, folks. Despite what you may have heard from the pulpit, a certain infotainment channel, or the talk radio host who still believes that FEMA camps are being readied to cart us away  – climate change is settled science. It is no longer a hypothesis (commonly but erroneously referred to as “just a theory”) but in the realm of fact, to the same extent that we can know that the earth is not flat. There is also a strongly supported hypothesis that this phenomenon is caused by human activity. The sheer percentage of scientists who agree—along the weight of those opinion—combine to form consensus. Since the discussion of how we can make the world a better place ought to be undertaken from the perspective of consensus, we shall take these considered opinions to heart. We are melting the polar ice caps.

I want to make the extent of the consequences of our actions crystal clear. I want to show you the sheer magnitude and speed of the change that's happening now. But first, please join me in an experiment. If you will, get a glass of water, a cube of ice, a timepiece, and something you can measure with. When you get back, check the time, drop the cube in the water, measure the ice cube in the water, and then figure out how you'll know when the ice cube is half its size. Try to capture the moment when the cube is half its size. Ready? Welcome back.

The area of north pole ice cap we lost—we melted—between early fall of 2010 and early fall of 2011 was roughly the size of New Mexico. Every time a mass of ice cap melts, it is proven that large quantities of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are released. It makes no difference if you believe that God put the gases in the ice or that natural emissions from animals like the wooly mammoth were frozen in the ice over tens of thousands of years. The important point is what these gases are known to do. They are greenhouse gases. They make the average global temperature higher, and methane has the strongest effect. How's your ice cube? If you look closely, do you see any bubbles in the glass yet? Measured? Good.


 
So just imagine the total animal population of the planet just broke wind. Now imagine that the entire animal population of the planet breaking wind for tens of thousands of years and every winter, a portion of the gases dissolved in the ocean—which the tides constantly stir in from our atmosphere—gets trapped in the two big chunks of ice on the top and bottom of our globe. If you can imagine that, and then imagine them all getting released very quickly, great. How's your ice cube now?
The other property of our polar ice caps which is very important to concept of climate change is called “albedo”. It the degree to which the sun's rays are reflected back or absorbed. The light sand on a beach might be hot, but it reflects light somewhat, as does the water, keeping everything much cooler than the blacktop on the street, which absorbs the light. Now you should be able to understand what's called “positive reinforcement” whereby the gases released make the earth warmer and the loss of bright, shiny ice does, too.
 
So the loss of polar ice cap material should increase more rapidly as time progresses, and that's what we're seeing. Between early fall of 2011 and early fall of 2012—just last week—we melted an area of north polar ice cap the size of Texas and Oklahoma combined. That's 300,000 square miles. And there is only 1,300,000 square miles left. You may want to check your ice cube now, if there's anything left of it. And say goodbye to more than your ice cube.


 
The report offered by scientists from NASA, Columbia University, et. al. (and Al) predicts that the north polar ice cap will melt by the end of the decade. You may be right to be skeptical of that claim, but not because it's too sensational, but because it isn't sufficient to assess a process which is being positively reinforced exponentially. Let's say that for the next measurements we take of the polar ice cap, we only lose the amount of ice we lost this year. That gives us a total loss in the summer of 2014 or 2015. Greenhouse gases from an area roughly four times the size of Texas will begin to work on the Greenland ice sheet and the south polar ice cap as well. Now we have a problem.


 
If we melt the Greenland ice sheet, a distinct possibility, sea levels will rise 20 feet. If we were actually able to melt Antarctica completely, the total rise in sea level would amount to 90 feet. But 20 feet is a big deal. This is Manhattan. This is Shanghai. This is Mumbai. This is London. This is Cape Town. This isn't just the greater Miami area. This is a good chunk of Florida. Seriously. This is the home of 90% of the world's population—our sea coasts. Say goodbye to the Seahawks, the 49ers, the Saints, the Rams, the Chargers, the Raiders, the Dolphins, the Buccaneers, the Giants, the Jets, and the Redskins as you know them. Say goodbye to the White House. Say goodbye to every coastal beach on the planet. And say hello to some new neighbors.



There's a demographic which plenty of people understand—it's our electoral map. During the Bush years, the Pacific states came to be known as the Left Coast because of a strong Democratic leaning. Most of the Democrats live along the nation's coasts. Most of the Republicans live inland. If you are a Republican, you have an opportunity right now to choose the degree to which you respond to climate change and how well you play with others. But remember this. It is also settled science that altruism (good deeds done to YOU) increases as social distance (your barriers to others due to race, religion, nationality, and/or communication obstacles) decreases. Translation: be a Good Samaritan—a racial distinction you could easily apply to being good to others regardless of whether you identify with them. Whether you are from “Judea” or “Samaria” we are about to reduce our social distance dramatically because we melted the ice caps and made the seas rise. Please be civil and welcoming. Assume good faith. The earth is a closed system and we are all in it together.

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